Warning for higher volatility in markets (Trading Week 02 Apr - 06 Apr)

Review of what we can expect in the upcoming trading week regarding markets, first week of new month and investors come in back hungry for more after the long Easter weekend. 
We are heading in to a slow start of the week as Monday all European markets are closed in Easter Holiday. Happy Easter. But in Asia and on the other side of the Atlantic is an open day, and to have the US session as first major one for the USD in the new month it makes sense as it is NFP's week. 

We start the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16.00 CET, and due to closed markets in Europe and lighter volumes, day traders and scalpers my find its satisfaction trading around the announcement and early in the US session.

Market review and brief analysis 

  • AUD important event (06.30 CET - 03 Apr) RBA Interest Rate decision expected unchanged at 1.50%, and also we have the RBA statement, it is here that investors shall seek for clues on future RBA policies, economic growth and inflation expectations, and having the AUD weaker for whole two months against the USD, on positive results we may see the AUDUSD pair rising towards 0.7750.
  • EUR important event (09.55 CET - 03 Apr) German Manufacturing PMI expected unchanged from previous at 58.4, the EUR in the last few sessions lost ground against the USD and at the moment sits on support between 1.2270 and 1.22 to the downside. Having the results better than expected can send the EURUSD above 1.2300 again. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/h3flUFvK-EURUSD-at-20-day-Exponential-Moving-Average-support/

  • GBP important event (10.30 CET - 03 Apr) Manufacturing PMI expected to print out lower result at 54.8 vs previous 55.2, but it will not be surprise if the numbers come out better than expected as the overall UK economy in the last few months show positive pace. The result is important and we have a look on the GBPUSD as it comes out before NFP's and it may a lot affect the position of the GBP against the USD in this Bullish Flag formation which I detected on 12th of March and for now it holds and the GBP may still have the thrust to follow the Bullish Flag pattern and go towards 1.4250 and 1.4500, GBPUSD at the moment pivots around the support levels 1.4030/1.4000. Prepared we enter the new month and follow the strategy. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/Zqa9dllV-GBPUSD-bullish-flag/

  • Crude Oil important event  (16.30 CET - 04 Apr) Crude Oil Inventories expected -0.287M, if we see wider drawdown it may push the price once again above 65.20. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WTICOUSD/yHLUzkTT-Crude-oil-again-at-resistance/

  • USD important event  (14.30 CET - 06 Apr) NFP's expected at 190K vs previously 313K, most of the time analysts say if the numbers match the forecast the USD will rise against the EUR, but experience in the last months suggests that initially the USD will rise, but after it falls severely. Enter with a lot of caution in possible trades and first digest the news later decide on your moves regarding opening or closing positions. Later in the day at 19.30 CET Fed Chair Powell Speaks, this is high importance event not just for the USD, but also for wide range of other financial instruments, which with the movements and volatility will affect each other in the short term. Follow the links above for the EURUSD and GBPUSD for more information on analysis. 

Make your analysis below in the chart. Look for more economic data here.

Risk warning!
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Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. You should first be aware of the risk and know what you do before you proceed with trading. Supplied information is not advice.

Author: Blagoja Pazarkoski, mCMI. Owner and Mentor at The Trade Academy.

AUDUSD chart by TradingView
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