Monday Afternoon Coffee - Markets Update - 31 Mar 2025 - Markets Slide, Gold Hits Record as Trump Expands Tariff Threat Globally

Markets Update: Wall Street and global markets dropped on Monday, while gold soared to a new record high, as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks rekindled fears of a global recession. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said U.S. tariffs would apply to all countries, dismissing hopes of targeted levies and signaling a more aggressive trade stance.

Global Markets Roundup: 31 March 2025

Markets are now bracing for a week of pivotal announcements: Trump is expected to receive final tariff recommendations on Tuesday, announce the first wave of levies on Wednesday, and roll out auto tariffs on Thursday.

Wall Street Dips as Risk-Off Mood Takes Hold

All three major U.S. indexes traded lower, with tech and consumer discretionary stocks leading declines:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.11% to 41,538.47
S&P 500: -0.90% to 5,530.99
Nasdaq Composite: -2.00% to 16,976.48

Sectors like energy, utilities, real estate, and consumer staples posted gains, reflecting a defensive tilt by investors.

Global Equities Slide on Trade Jitters

STOXX 600: -1.40%, lowest in nearly eight weeks
Frankfurt DAX, London FTSE, Paris CAC: down between 1.7% and 2%
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan: -1.9%

Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 35%, up from 20%, citing the threat of 15% reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners from April 2.

Economic Data Highlights Inflation-Stagflation Concerns

Friday's economic releases revealed:

Core inflation rose more than expected in February
Consumer spending missed expectations
Consumer sentiment deteriorated further in March

Dollar Mixed, Yen Firms

Dollar Index DXY: +0.22%
USD/JPY: -0.13% to 149.63
EURUSD: -0.27% to $1.0799
USD/CHF: +0.48% to 0.885

The dollar strengthened against European currencies but slipped versus the yen amid heightened risk aversion.

Bonds Rally as Traders Bet on Fed Cuts

Bond markets reflected growing expectations of a Fed pivot:

10-year U.S. Treasury yield: -3.5 bps to 4.219%
German 10-year Bund: -2.6 bps to 2.706%

Markets are pricing in up to 80 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, despite rising inflation.

Gold Surges to New Record

Gold’s safe-haven appeal surged:

Spot gold: +1.18% to $3,120.27/oz, hitting a record $3,128.06
Gold futures: +1.3% to $3,126.60/oz

Goldman Sachs lifted its gold forecast last week to $3,300, citing robust ETF demand and central bank buying.

Crude Gains on Tariff Tensions, Russia Oil Threat

WTI crude: +2.34% to $70.99/bbl
Brent crude: +1.41% to $74.67/bbl

Oil prices rose after Trump threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, accusing Moscow of obstructing peace efforts in Ukraine.

Soft Commodities Mixed

NY Cocoa (May): -0.95%
London Cocoa (May): -0.78%
NY Sugar (May): -0.16%
London Sugar (May): +0.49%

Cocoa continued to trend lower on improving West African crop outlooks. Sugar dipped as rainfall in Brazil supported harvest expectations.

Grains and Soybeans Mixed

Soybeans (CBOT): -5¢ to $10.18/bushel
Corn: +5¢ to $4.58¼/bushel
Wheat: +6½¢ to $5.34¾/bushel

Soybean prices fell on higher-than-expected USDA stock estimates, while wheat and corn gained on bullish acreage and inventory figures.

Looking forward refer to the economic calendar below to see the upcoming events scheduled for today and the rest of the week.

General news - Information source from multiple newswires.

The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!

The Trade Academy Team