Wednesday Afternoon Coffee - Markets Update - 26 Mar 2025 - Stocks Slip, Dollar Rises as Markets Await Tariff Clarity

Markets Update:

Durable goods orders exceed forecasts. S&P 500 and Nasdaq break their 3-day winning streaks. The dollar strengthens; oil prices rise, while gold declines. Commodities show mixed results amid global trade uncertainty.

Global Markets Roundup: 26 March 2025

U.S. stocks showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining while the Dow gained, as investors responded to robust economic data and remained wary before the April 2 tariff deadline. The dollar slightly increased, and Treasury yields climbed, as markets evaluated the possible consequences of President Donald Trump’s upcoming trade measures.

Tariff Jitters Return as April Deadline Nears

Global equities pulled back for the first time in three sessions as investors weighed whether Trump’s tariff package—expected to include new levies on autos and secondary sanctions on oil trade with Venezuela—will be broader than hoped.

Stocks: Tech Drags, Dow Holds Up

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +182.05 points (+0.43%) to 42,769.55

• S&P 500: -20.10 points (-0.34%) to 5,756.79

• Nasdaq Composite: -212.27 points (-1.16%) to 18,059.58

Technology stocks led declines as investors took profits following recent gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke a three-day winning streak, while all three major indexes remain on track for their first back-to-back monthly losses since October 2023.

Durable Goods Beat Forecasts

The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February, defying expectations for a 1% decline. January’s gain was also revised sharply higher to 3.3%, driven by early purchases of metal goods ahead of tariffs.

Global Markets Mixed

• MSCI World Index: -0.30% to 850.95

• STOXX 600: -0.44%, though still headed for its strongest quarterly performance since 2022

European equities outperformed U.S. peers this year, lifted by optimism around Germany’s fiscal stimulus plan and resilience in corporate earnings.

Dollar Extends Gains, Euro Softens

The U.S. dollar rose for the fifth time in six sessions, supported by stronger data and rate hike speculation.

• Dollar Index DXY: +0.08% to 104.30

• EURUSD: -0.01% to $1.0790

• USD/JPY: +0.39% to 150.48

• GBP/USD: -0.36% to $1.2896, after UK inflation slowed more than expected and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves cut spending plans

In Japan, Bank of Japan officials signaled a cautious path toward policy normalization. Governor Kazuo Ueda said persistent food inflation could warrant hikes, while new board member Junko Koeda noted that real rates remain “extremely low.”

Oil Rises, Gold Retreats

Crude prices rose as traders reacted to fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and easing tensions in the Black Sea following U.S.-brokered agreements between Ukraine and Russia on energy infrastructure.

• WTI crude: +1.26% to $69.87/bbl

• Brent crude: +1.15% to $73.86/bbl

Gold eased, but remained above the key $3,000/oz level, with investors watching tariff developments and Fed signals:

• Spot gold: -0.1% to $3,015.50/oz

• U.S. gold futures: -0.1% to $3,022.10/oz

• Silver: +0.09% to $34.03/oz

• Copper: +2.35% to $5.183/lb

Agricultural and Soft Commodities Mixed

• Live cattle: +$0.20 to $0.55 higher midday; cash trade remains sluggish

• Cotton (May futures): +53 to +56 points; rebound after recent weakness

• ICE Cocoa (NY May): +0.58%, ICE Cocoa (London May): +1.34% — gains supported by weaker pound and short-covering

• Arabica coffee (May): -1.23%